[253], Australia before the recession was suffering from an unusually severe and expensive bushfire season which damaged the economy and domestic trade routes. The decline is led by a decrease in household spending which typically accounts for 70% of the country's GDP and hesitancy on spending due to COVID-19 community quarantine measures. [238], Restaurant patronage fell sharply across the country,[239] and major airlines reduced their operations on a large scale. Retail’s challenged position. Compounding—and potentially supersizing—those problems is the Trump administration's festering trade fight with China. [349] Inequity in economic impact on workers in similar professions occurred when employees laid-off completely were awarded both State unemployment benefits and up to $600/week in federal pandemic assistance – which together could equal or exceed pre-layoff income – while peers reduced to part-time employment struggled, ineligible for either unemployment insurance compensation or the accompanying pandemic payments. [231] Beyond oil, the country's economy also relies on tourism, trade with the United States, as well as remittances, which all are also being affected. [132] Australia's ASX 200 lost 7.3%—its biggest daily drop since 2008,[133][134] though it rebounded later in the day. "We would caution against seeing the inversion of the yield curve as an infallible predictor of an economic contraction or a bear market," Michael Ryan, Chief Investment Officer Americas at UBS, and Mark Haefele, the investment bank's Global Chief Investment Officer, said in a report. [174][175] Oil prices dropped by 8%,[176] while the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities increased to 0.86% and 1.45% (and their yield curve finished normal). [316], On 19 March 2020 the Bank of England cut the interest rate to a historic low of 0.1%. Differences across occupations caused difference in the economic effects across groups. [213], In April 2020, Sub-Saharan Africa appeared poised to enter its first recession in 25 years, but this time for a longer duration. [87] The cartel initially made a tentative agreement to cut oil production by 1.5 million barrels per day following a meeting in Vienna on 5 March 2020, which would bring the production levels to the lowest it has been since the Iraq War. [343] Department stores and clothing shops have been especially hit. [82][83][84], The reduction in the demand for travel and the lack of factory activity due to the COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted demand for oil, causing its price to fall. Since May, meanwhile, investors have been fixated on the dreaded "inverted yield curve"—historically, a precursor to many recessions that occurs when returns on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds fall below those on shorter-term debt. [40] Global growth was believed to have peaked in 2017, when the world's total industrial output began to start a sustained decline in early 2018. [300], Property investment sales in Singapore fell 37 per cent to $3.02 billion in the first quarter of this year from the previous three months as the pandemic took its toll on investor sentiment, a report from Cushman & Wakefield on 13 April showed. A recession is a general downturn in any economy. The COVID-19 recession is a major ongoing global economic crisis which has caused a recession in some nations and in others a depression. [222], Argentina entered its 9th sovereign default in history due to the recession. [20] California State University has brought up an initiative of releasing nationwide remote opportunities to benefit the citizens of the United States. [216][217], Botswana has been affected by sharp falls in the diamond trade, tourism and other sectors. Opinion: This is the real reason why the U.S. economy isn’t in recession danger now Published: April 1, 2019 at 5:05 p.m. 3 reasons the U.S. economy isn't set to fall off a cliff. [281] However the prediction later turned out to be wrong. Get the latest breaking news delivered straight to your inbox. This is marginally higher than the 6.8% GDP growth last fiscal, but lower than the 14-year average of 7%. [326] On 13 May, the Office for National Statistics announced a 2% fall in GDP in the first quarter of 2020, including a then-record 5.8% monthly fall in March. Crisil has lowered its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for this fiscal to 6.9%, 20 basis points lower than its earlier projection. [51], In the United States, the trade war brought struggles for farmers and manufacturers and higher prices for consumers, which resulted in the U.S manufacturing industry entering into a "mild recession" during 2019. The IMF predicted the growth rate of India in the financial year of 2020–21 as 1.9%,[279] but in the following financial year, they predict it to be 7.4%. [186] 12 March was the second time, following 9 March, that the 7%-drop circuit breaker was triggered since being implemented in 2013. [322] April's Purchasing Managers' Index score was 13.8 points, the lowest since records began in 1996, indicating a severe downturn of business activity. By. In recent decades, an inversion has preceded most—but not all—recessions. [277] Annual inflation remained in negative territory in May (-1.7%) and is forecast to edge up to 1.0 percent by year-end.[278]. Most economists believed a recession, though one which would not be particularly severe, was coming. [295] The country officially entered a recession in September after a GDP contraction of 12.2% in the second quarter of 2020 was reported by Statistics New Zealand. The World Bank predicted that overall sub-Saharan Africa's economy would shrink by 2.1%–⁠5.1% during 2020. [268], On 23 July 2020, Josh Frydenberg delivered a quarterly budget update stating the government had implemented a $289 billion economic support package. [227], By June 2020, the national unemployment rate in Canada was 12.5%, down from 13.7% in May. [336], The demand shock to oil was so severe that the price of American oil futures contracts became negative (bottoming out at $-37.63 per barrel on the West Texas Intermediate), as traders started paying for buyers to take the product before storage capacity ran out. [365], The United Nations forecasts that the following member states will have significant areas with poor food security categorised as under "stress" (IPC phase 2), "crisis" (IPC phase 3), "emergency" (IPC phase 4) or "critical emergency" (IPC phase 5) in 2020:[363], On 9 July, Oxfam released a report warning that "12,000 people per day could die from COVID-19 linked hunger" by 2021, estimating an additional 125 million people are at risk of starvation due to the pandemic. [138][139][140] The STOXX Europe 600 fell to more than 20% below its peak earlier in the year. British and EU growth stagnated during 2019 leading up to Brexit, mainly due to uncertainty in the UK caused by political figures and movements aiming to oppose, reverse or otherwise impede the 2016 Brexit Referendum, resulting in delays and extensions. [253], Other sources may expect different figures. [clarification needed] The S&P 500 fell by 7.6%. [357] A resurgence of COVID-19 (facilitated by mass protests) could exacerbate the 2020 stock market crash according to Canadian economists at RBC. On 9 April 2020, at least 600,000 businesses went bankrupt, and 9 million people were fired. Kyle Lauren Ramos - April 14, 2019. [8], The COVID-19 pandemic is an ongoing pandemic of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); the outbreak was identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, declared to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020, and recognized as a pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020. [127] The NASDAQ Composite, also in the United States, lost over 620 points. [245][246] The United States Department of Commerce reported that consumer spending fell by 7.5 percent during the month of March 2020. The unemployment rate was forecast to average 11.5% in 2020 and 9.3% in 2021. However, due to the further reinstatement of restrictions on Victoria, notably stage 4 restrictions, national unemployment is now set to reach 11%. Will you get a stimulus check by December 31? trade war fears prompted a sell-off in global stock markets during March 2019, which prompted more fears that a recession was imminent. [275], On 18 March, the Reserve Bank of Fiji reduced its overnight policy rate (OPR)[a] and predicted the domestic economy to fall into a recession after decades of economic growth. [308] On 8 April 2020, the Bank of France officially declared that the French economy was in recession, shrinking by 6 percent in the first quarter of 2020. Fastest Plunge Of 20% On Record", "Dow plunges 10% amid coronavirus fears for its worst day since the 1987 market crash", "Wall Street plunges, bringing record bull run to an end", "Oil drops as much as 8%, on pace for worst week in more than a decade", "10-year Treasury yield rises even as stocks tumble into bear market", "Coronavirus: FTSE 100, Dow, S&P 500 in worst day since 1987", "Canadian stock market bloodbath: Worst one-day fall in 80 years", "Borse, Piazza Affari chiude a −16,92%. Tourism, which employs one in ten Egyptians and contributes about 5% of the GDP, has largely stopped, while remittances from migrant workers abroad (9% of GDP) are also expected to fall. [207] After cutting its bank rate by 25 basis points on 7 February,[208] the Central Bank of Russia announced that it would keep its bank rate at 6%,[209] while the Bank of Korea announced that it would cut its overnight rate by 50 basis points to 0.75%. [205] The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey lowered its reserve requirement from 8% to 6%. Other key gauges of the economy's health, such as jobless claims and constructions permits, show no signs of an approaching economic crunch, according to Capital Economics. After three of the last 10 inversions, the U.S. economy continued to grow over the next two years, UBS economists note. [107][108][109] Global markets into early March became extremely volatile, with large swings occurring in global markets. [219] The cheap fuel prices and slower demand have also led some shipping companies to avoid the Suez Canal, and instead opt for traveling by the Cape of Good Hope, leading to reduced transit fees for the government. A recession is associated with high unemployment, slowing gross domestic product, and high inflation. [254][255][256][257] [353] A number of small businesses, already suffering from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, were harmed by vandalism, property destruction, and looting. Live analysis: What you need to know about a possible recession - … On 21 April, the United Nations World Food Programme warned that a famine "of biblical proportions" was expected in several parts of the world as a result of the pandemic. "The era of globalization would well and truly be over. The problems that the Central Bank observed were good reasons to respond. [299], The government projects that the GDP will contract by 5.5% in 2020. On Jamie Dimon’s annual letter Thursday, he reveals why he’s convinced that we’re not going to see a recession in 2019: … )[236][237] On 8 May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a U-3 unemployment (official unemployment) figure of 14.7%, the highest level recorded since 1941, with U-6 unemployment (total unemployed plus marginally attached and part-time underemployed workers) reaching 22.8%. "[99] The price of oil briefly went negative on 20 April 2020. [313], Italy's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 11.2%, with 51% fearing unemployment in March. During the crash, global stock markets made unprecedented and volatile swings, mainly due to extreme uncertainty in the markets. See which states have been hit the hardest", "Unemployment cases jump in the United States", "Remote opportunities released by California State University", "ILO: COVID-19 causes devastating losses in working hours and employment", "UK economy could shrink by 35% with 2m job losses, warns OBR", "Unemployment forecast to soar to highest rate in almost 30 years", "Spain's jobless rate is set to surge much more than in countries like Italy", "Covid stops many migrants sending money home", "Coronavirus pandemic will cause global famines of 'biblical proportions,' UN warns", "Consumer Attitudes And Behavior Will Change in the Recession, And Persist When It Ends", "The $1.5 Trillion Global Tourism Industry Faces $450 Billion Collapse in Revenues, Based on Optimistic Assumptions", "Stock Market Crash 2020: Everything You Need to Know", "Wild stock-market swings are 'emotionally and intellectually wearing' on Wall Street", "Corporate bonds and loans are at the centre of a new financial scare", "April 2020 Global Debt Monitor: COVID-19 Lights a Fuse", "Transcript of October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report Press Briefing", "Companies With High Debt Are Paying a Price", "The World Economy: Synchronized Slowdown, Precarious Outlook", "Opinion: Here's what is really causing the global economic slowdown", "A Strange New World: Economic Slowdown, Liquidity Issues", "Dow, S&P 500 set for worst May tumble in nearly 50 years amid U.S.-China trade clash", "Household debt up 7.4% in 2019 amid economic woes", "Coronavirus could cause more countries to default on their debt, economist says", "Statement Regarding Monetary Policy Implementation", "The Trade War, Paused for Now, Is Still Wreaking Damage", "Trump's Trade War With China Is Officially Underway", "Findings of the Investigation into China's Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation Under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974", "U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession during 2019, a sore spot for the economy", "China–US trade war: Sino-American ties being torn down brick by brick", "For the U.S. and China, it's not a trade war anymore – it's something worse", "NDR 2019: Singapore will be 'principled' in approach to China–US trade dispute; ready to help workers", "Trump Says He Will Raise Existing Tariffs on Chinese Goods to 30%", "IMF – The "Great Lockdown" Is Set To Triggers The World's Worst Recession Since The 1929 Great Depression", "Great lockdown as bad as Great Depression: IMF", "Shadow of Brexit still looms over economy: experts debate the data", "How has Brexit vote affected the UK economy? [189], Over the preceding weekend, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority announced a $13 billion credit-line package to small and medium-sized companies,[190] while South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a fiscal stimulus package. The market closed with the KSE 100 index down 3.1%. [319] On 24 March non-essential business and travel were officially banned in the UK to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2. © 2019 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. How can factors like inflation, supply and demand, and interest rates trigger recessions? [276] Later on 25 June, the national bank predicted the Fijian economy to contract severely this year due to falling consumption and investment associated with ongoing job-losses. [266], As of April 2020, up to a million people have been laid off due to effects of the recession. [296][297], The Philippines' real GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2020, the first contraction since the fourth quarter of 1998, a year after the Asian financial crisis. [53][54][55][56] During the recession, the downturn of consumerism and manufacturing from the trade war is believed to have worsened the economic crisis. [232] All of this leading to what could be Mexico's worst recession in a century, and the worst in Latin America after Venezuela. About 16 million jobs were lost in the United States in the three weeks ending on 4 April. ET [258] Aiding Chile's downfall is reduced demand for copper from the US and China due to COVID-19. Australia will maintain their triple A credit rating. The biggest discounts targeted Russian oil customers in northwestern Europe. That's the scary news, and it shouldn't be dismissed lightly. [360], Unlike the Great Recession, it is expected that the COVID-19 recession will also affect the majority of developing nations. [361][362] The release of 2020 Global Report on Food Crises indicated that 55 countries were at risk,[363] with David Beasley estimating that in a worst-case scenario "about three dozen" countries would succumb to famine. Dr Kirdan Lees suggests there are five reasons why Grant Robertson needs a plan in his back pocket. [74], The COVID-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences beyond the spread of the disease and efforts to quarantine it. [10][11][12][13], The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than a third of the world's population being placed on lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19. October verdict", "Brexit Consequences for the U.K., the EU, and the United States", "What The 1918 Flu Pandemic Teaches Us About The Coronavirus Outbreak", "How a consumer go-slow and a pile of debt is killing the economy", "Retail slumps to 'weakest' level in 28 years as tax cuts fail to stimulate consumer spending", "Global economic hit from coronavirus will be felt 'for a long time to come,' OECD warns", "Statement on the second meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)", "WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 – 11 March 2020", "Here Comes the Coronavirus Pandemic: Now, after many fire drills, the world may be facing a real fire", "A List of What's Been Canceled Because of the Coronavirus", "Why there will soon be tons of toilet paper, and what food may be scarce, according to supply chain experts", "The Coronavirus Outbreak Could Disrupt the U.S. Drug Supply", Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, "Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) – Transmission", "Real-time data show virus hit to global economic activity", "Coronavirus Recession Looms, Its Course 'Unrecognizable, "A 'short, sharp' global recession is starting to look inevitable", "The Coronavirus Recession Will Be Unusually Difficult to Fight", "There will be no easy cure for a recession triggered by the coronavirus", "ECR Risk Experts Contemplate another Financial Crisis", Euromoney, 20 March 2020, "Government Orders Alone Didn't Close the Economy. [39] 'Cracks' were showing in the consumer market as global markets began to suffer through a 'sharp deterioration' of manufacturing activity. [citation needed], From 24 to 28 February, stock markets worldwide reported their largest one-week declines since the 2008 financial crisis,[104][105][106] thus entering a correction. [195] On Monday 16 March, Asia-Pacific and European stock markets closed down (with the S&P/ASX 200 setting a one-day record fall of 9.7%, collapsing 30% from the peak that was reached on 20 February). [142] In Japan, the Nikkei 225 plummeted 5.1%. Further, real GDP is forecast to have fallen sharply by 7% in the June quarter with unemployment anticipated to peak at 9.25% in the December quarter. Latin American countries are expected to fall into a "lost decade", with Latin America's GDP returning to 2010 levels, falling by 9.1%. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, it was the worst fall in history. Most Wall Street analysts see no obvious off-ramps in the conflict and expect it to continue at least through the 2020 presidential election, if not longer. Most important, U.S. economic growth has fallen sharply, from over 3% in the first three months of the year to roughly 2%—a pace of expansion many economists consider the new normal following the 2008 financial crisis. ", "The coronavirus recession is already here", "World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020: A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery", "The Great Lockdown: Worst Economic Downturn Since the Great Depression", "COVID-19 to Plunge Global Economy into Worst Recession since World War II", "The Great Recession Was Bad. [121] This predicted 1,300-point drop would establish 9 March as being among the most points the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped in a single day. The UK's new lockdown rules, explained", "Bank of England to directly finance UK government's extra spending", "Coronavirus hit household spending much harder than BoE assumed", "UK business activity drops to lowest level on record", "Nearly a quarter of British employees furloughed in last fortnight", "BoE warns UK set to enter worst recession for 300 years", "Gross Domestic Product: Quarter on Quarter growth: CVM SA %", "Britain is facing 'significant recession', says Rishi Sunak", "HSBC posts sharp fall in profits and warns of 'challenging' US-China tensions", "UK officially in recession for first time in 11 years", "Jobs recovery from COVID-19 gained steam in September, with 378,000 new hires | CBC News", "How the coronavirus recession puts service workers at risk", "Worst yet to come as coronavirus takes its toll on auto sales", "General Motors, Ford and Fiat Chrysler to temporarily close all US factories due to the coronavirus", "China coronavirus adds to German automakers' woes", "US oil prices turn negative as demand dries up", "Record deal to cut oil output ends price war", "Global tourism industry may shrink by more than 50% due to the pandemic", "Coronavirus exposes sick leave gap for retail, restaurant workers", "Nobody's buying clothes right now. Australia's economy is hanging tough, stubbornly refusing to capitulate to recession after a world-record 28 years of growth. On that front, something to watch is the Trump administration's linkage of foreign policy to its trade feud with China. Even before the COVID-19 crisis began, our report The next consumer It's unclear how Mr. Trump would respond if Chinese forces cracked down on protesters, especially given that many Hong Kongers have U.S. passports. [18][19] At present, over 10 million unemployment cases are filed in the United States. [155], Black Thursday[156] was a global stock market crash on 12 March 2020, as part of the greater 2020 stock market crash. [218], The Egyptian economy is taking a heavy toll by the global recession. [151][152] After announcing a $120 billion fiscal stimulus programs on 2 December,[153] Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced additional government spending,[154] while Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani announced additional stimulus as well. [251], The recession caused by COVID-19 is expected to be the worst in the history of Latin America. [143] In Singapore, the Straits Times Index fell 6.03%. But some of the threads it is hanging by are fraying. Perhaps the biggest wild card: trade. Fears of the Russian–Saudi Arabian oil price war caused a plunge in U.S. stocks, and have had a particular impact on American producers of shale oil. [225] News provided by The Associated Press. The 38th depression, 9th typhoon and 3rd super typhoon of the 2019 Pacific typhoon season, it was the strongest typhoon in decades to strike mainland Japan, and one of the largest typhoons ever recorded at a peak diameter of 825 nautical miles (950 mi; 1529 km). [141], In a number of Asian markets—Japan, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia—shares declined over 20% from their most recent peaks, entering bear market territory. [354][355] Curfews instated by local governments – in response to both the pandemic and protests – have also "restricted access to the downtown [areas]" to essential workers, lowering economic output. [71][72] Schools, universities and colleges have closed either on a nationwide or local basis in 80 countries, affecting approximately 61.6 percent of the world's student population. China's move earlier this month to allow its currency to depreciate—bringing shrieks of currency manipulation from President Donald Trump—has opened a new front. [303], On 14 May, Singapore Airlines (SIA) posted its first annual net loss in 48 years – a net loss of S$732.4 million in the fourth quarter, reversing from a net profit of S$202.6 million in the corresponding quarter a year ago. [285] This adds to the effect of the pandemic on people's lives and the economy, the prime minister unveiling a 'massive" stimulus amounting to 20% of GDP.[286]. [112][113] This became colloquially known as Black Monday I, and at the time was the worst drop since the Great Recession in 2008. [160], Bank Indonesia announced open market purchases of Rp4 trillion (or $276.53 million) in government bonds,[161] while Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo stated that Bank Indonesia's open market purchases of government bonds had climbed to Rp130 trillion on the year and Rp110 trillion since the end of January. [267] Over 280,000 individuals applied for unemployment support at the peak day. Prior to the lockdown, the unemployment rate was at 4.2%. London's FTSE 100 lost 7.7%, suffering its worst drop since the 2008 financial crisis. Since August 2019, Lebanon had been experiencing a major economic crisis that was caused by an increase in the official exchange rate between the Lebanese pound and the United States dollar. [340] Some employees were fired, and more employees lacked sick leave in the sector compared to similar sectors. [64][65][66] This caused a stock market crash and, thereafter, the recession. Starbucks offering free coffee to frontline workers this month. [271] The garment industry has been heavily affected, having already been contracting in 2019. Europe’s third-largest economy is on the brink of its third [229], In response, the Government of Canada introduced several benefits including, the Canada Emergency Response Benefit, the Canada Emergency Student Benefit, and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. The global economy in 2019 is much weaker than 2018. [88], After OPEC and Russia failed to agree on oil production cuts on 6 March and Saudi Arabia and Russia both announced increases in oil production on 7 March, oil prices fell by 25 percent. [41] The IMF blamed 'heightened trade and geopolitical tensions' as the main reason for the slowdown, citing Brexit and the China–United States trade war as primary reasons for slowdown in 2019, while other economists blamed liquidity issues. Significant reductions in passenger numbers have resulted in planes flying empty between airports and the cancellation of flights. The following airlines have gone bankrupt or into administration: The cruise ship industry has also been heavily affected by a downturn, with the share prices of the major cruise lines down 70–80%.[347]. Nestlé, PepsiCo, the United Nations Foundation and farmers' unions have written to the G20 for support in maintaining food distributions in order to prevent food shortages. (The previous record had been 700,000 from 1982. [177], The US's Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash, as did the UK's FTSE 100, which fell 10.87%. [333], New vehicle sales in the United States have declined by 40%. Although the White House last week delayed slapping new tariffs on China, the Trump administration is widely expected to proceed with the levies, with neither the U.S. nor China signaling a willingness to back down. Canadian manufacturing sales in March fell to the lowest level since mid-2016, as sales by auto manufacturers and parts suppliers plunged more than 30%. [44] Rising debt levels in the European Union and the United States had always been a concern for economists. [28][29][30] Global stock markets crashed around 20 to 30% during late February and March 2020, respectively. Hiring around the country has slowed, but remains well above the level required to keep unemployment near a 50-year low. When will employers stop hassling Black workers over their hair? [184] The benchmark stock market index on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange fell by 9.3%. In April, car and light truck sales were 49% below the late 2019 monthly average. [121] Oil firms Chevron and ExxonMobil fell about 15%. [22] In some countries, unemployment is expected to be at around 10%, with more severely affected nations from the COVID-19 pandemic having higher unemployment rates. The other is the devastating effects of Typhoon Hagibis, also known as the Reiwa 1 East Japan Typhoon (令和元年東日本台風, Reiwa Gannen Higashi-Nihon Taifū), or Typhoon Number 19 (台風19). Global Manufacturing PMIs Fall. [305], The Belarusian economy is being negatively affected by the loss of Russian oil subsidies, and the drop in price of Belarus's refined oil products. Unlike the 2008 global financial crisis, which was mostly a large negative aggregate demand shock, the next Economic Recession 2019: Reasons Why Jamie Dimon Doesn’t See A Recession Coming in 2019. However, in 2019, that concern was heightened during the economic slowdown, and economists began warning of a 'debt bomb' occurring during the next economic crisis. [52] In other countries it has also caused economic damage, including violent protests in Chile and Ecuador due to transport and energy price surges, though some countries have benefited from increased manufacturing to fill the gaps. [240] The Big Three car manufacturers all halted production. [224], The fall in travel is expected to drive Belize into a deep recession in 2020. But what if the ill omens are wrong? Also, the price of West Texas Intermediate fell to its lowest level since February 2016. By March, it was much more uncertain. Depending on how the pandemic evolves and the efficacy of policy responses around the world, Singapore's economic growth could even dip below the forecast range of minus four to minus one per cent to record its worst-ever contraction. [116][117][118] Despite a temporary rally on 13 March (with markets posting their best day since 2008), all three Wall Street indexes fell more than 12% when markets re-opened on 16 March. [85] The Russian-Saudi Arabia oil price war became a cause in worsening the recession due to it crashing the price of oil.